Memory Supply Crunch to Worsen Through 2027, Industry Warns

The semiconductor memory market faces intensifying supply constraints that are expected to persist beyond 2027, driven by relentless AI demand and the industry’s focus on high-value memory products, according to executives and market analysts .

Micron Executive: “2027 Will Be Tighter Than 2026”

Speaking at the KeyBanc Capital Markets Annual Technology Leadership Forum on August 11, Micron Technology Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Sumit Sadana said customer demand signals have strengthened since the company’s latest earnings release. The company expects supply-demand dynamics in calendar year 2027 to be “more constrained than 2026,” with no clear timeline for when supply will match demand .

Sadana identified DRAM itself as the “primary constraint” for customers, surpassing power supply, real estate, data center capacity, or logic wafers. He attributed the imbalance to the difficulty and long lead times of building and ramping advanced memory chip fabs .

Omdia Raises Forecast as Memory Market Quadruples

Omdia has significantly revised its semiconductor revenue forecast for 2026 to 62.7%, citing unprecedented growth in DRAM and NAND driven by sustained demand and ongoing supply shortages. The DRAM market is forecast to nearly double in value, while the smaller NAND segment could quadruple compared to 2025 .

“Supporting the progression of AI beyond simple Q&A use cases has exponentially increased demand for memory and processing ICs,” said Myson Robles-Bruce, Senior Principal Analyst at Omdia. “However, questions remain around how quickly suppliers can scale capacity and output, and longer term, which applications will generate sufficient ROI to justify current levels of capex in AI” .

Supply Constraints Exacerbated by HBM Focus

Omdia reported that supply constraints in conventional memory IC supply are being exacerbated by the industry’s focus on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production, which delivers lower volumes but commands significantly higher prices. Strong enterprise and data center demand will continue to shape the 2026 market outlook, with meaningful supply relief unlikely until well into 2027 .

The computing and data storage segment is expected to lead all categories with semiconductor revenue growth of 90% year-on-year in 2026, exceeding $700 billion .